Where we correct? Reviewing trends predicted in 2022
It’s not news that the shifting digital landscape makes it tricky to forecast where to place your efforts. Adding to the complexity is the toll the pandemic has had on our lives and the consequential behavioural shifts. As digital strategists, we lean on previous seasonal behaviours to ascertain where to focus energy and recalibrate based on recent digital updates.
There are major lessons that we can learn from what happened last year to help map out 2022. However in this neverending demand of Instagram updates and TikTok changes…it’s essential to finetune which efforts are worth prioritising.
Simply put: knowing where to focus energy, when cultural curveballs arise is essential in existing in today's digital environment.
As we work with creators day in and day out, I’ve finetuned the defining insights of this time last year, mapping out predictions of how this will affect the rest of 2022.
What we saw last year
Pinterest algorithm changes came into effect haemorrhaging Pinterest-driven traffic outside of the platform, whilst also diminishing engagement within the platform (chloédigital 2021)
Google updates revolving around Core Web Vitals took a swipe at stable year-on-year traffic, creating a tumultuous ranking environment for sites (Google 2021)
Email marketing engagement picked up into full swing with Open Rates and Click-Through Rates improving. (Campaign Monitor 2021)
The likeliness of someone exhibiting commercial activity of a user entering a site via email rose (chloédigital 2021)
The link sticker came in on Instagram, replacing swipe-ups. drastically reducing the level of traffic going to sites via Instagram as a whole (chloédigital 2021)
Switching up social
With on-site ad revenue down due to a reduction in once-stable traffic through organic search and Pinterest, creators leant on other social channels to drive further engagement. From pushing greater video content on Instagram, starting new YouTube channels and taking this opportunity to flesh out TikTok.
Around June 2021 however, the switch from the swipe up to link sticker caused significant reductions in story conversions. Arguably, this was Instagram's intention all along. Instagram ran with the message of "democratising the ability to link to content" outside of Instagram, a privilege previously set aside for accounts over 10k followers. They did this by enabling anyone to link out on Stories using the IG Stickers, changing the movement from a Swipe up to now a Tap.
Our data showed this led to an overnight reduction in traffic from Instagram for 3 different reasons:
The physical action from swipe to tap is a fundamentally different movement using different fingers. This requires a lot of time training an audience to change this behaviour.
The physical placement of the link sticker mattered for both clickability and engagement. Depending on device type, the most logical place to add the link sticker would be near where a swipe-up action would start: the bottom. However, this became overridden by the reply box and became unpredictable depending on what device the audience was using. Therefore the only “logical” place to add a link sticker would be in the centre…obstructing the content in the story….something which audiences could not get on board with.
Initially, the text shown in the link sticker initially (this has since changed) was the URL. Most of the time these are tracking links which appear spam-like to audiences. Or, they would be domain-based URLs, leading to the perception of over-repetition.
Hero in Email
With troubles in social traffic and the unforeseen drop in search engine traffic, email then became the hero of the season. The easy-to-process direct messaging (compared to Instagram’s consistent UI changes) became more sought after. Adding to this audiences demonstrated that they were prime to spend in the first “freeish” summer since the pandemic, a season they felt they lost in 2020. With that, comes $$$. Email Marketing, therefore, became the driving force of onsite conversions.
Our data demonstrated that compared to other channels Emails saw a high propensity to drive people to sites consistently but also with greater buying intention. Those coming to sites via email to digest content were more likely to click on a product suggestion compared to any other channel.
This heightened on-site commercial behaviour made Q3 the most “product clicky” period compared to any other quarter in 2021, priming consumers for the impending Holiday period.
What we’re seeing now?
A lot of seasonal behaviour can be seen year on year. Meaning that we can make predictions based on what happened previously, with mild evolutions affecting our hypothesis. The pandemic quite literally lit a match under this, expediting changes in digital behaviours where content is concerned. Therefore it’s wise to consider the things we saw in Q2 and Q3 and use this to map out strategies for 2022, whilst also considering the overarching changes in digital that will likely affect the baseline.
Here are some significant digital updates that I predict will affect the new post-pandemic status quo:
Push for originality on social has its effects on small accounts and UGC strategies
Spending will likely be even more intense before going into Fall
The giants will fight out on who can convert audiences into consumers first
Recontrolling the narrative by pushing to Email might be a consequence of the fallout
Apps will compete to make in-app editing more editorial
Like the Pinterest change in algorithm last year to reduce the recirculation of content, Instagram has announced changes to a ranking algorithm based on pushing original content. A number of questions arise in regards to how this will affect smaller accounts that need larger accounts to share their content for exposure. Furthermore, businesses that incorporate user-generated content strategies to turn consumers into creators might have to recalibrate their plans on where they do this. All of this is happening as businesses square up their plans for the Holiday period. If UGC cannot be amplified on Instagram, then perhaps the social sharing action needs to happen elsewhere, e.g. via email or TikTok. Could UGC take a more “exclusive” community touch?
TikTok will get its shopping knives out to compete. Teaming with malls such as Westfields to bring social shopping IRL, TikTok is really going for the educational angle….something which Instagram hasn’t been too successful with. The technology to tag products within Instagram posts was already established for years and yet is only publically being rolled out now. Why has this taken so long comes to mind? And despite this rolling out in technology, the affiliate beta group still hasn’t been rolled out publicly as they planned in 2021. Meaning that anyone can now tag products in their feed content but barely anyone will receive commissions from it.
Given anecdotal conversations with creators, we’re finding that there is currently a pre-summer boom in commissions generated via affiliate links across all channels, indicating that consumers are amping up their spending in time for summer. A trend we see year on year. However, we can predict that perhaps this expenditure will be a little more intense given the greater freedom in travel compared to the past 2 years, the reductions in socialising restrictions and the opening up of hospitality. Not only will this encourage travel expenditure but apparel, beauty and impulse purchases indirectly.
LTK is taking advantage of social media commercialisation by proactively pushing their app in campaigns running from May onwards. Despite creators seeing a tangible increase in affiliate commissions with the network, it’s a question as to whether enough consumers actually join the app through their campaigns to take earning potential to the next level. Currently, LTK conversions require creators to position to their own audience and proactively drive them to download the app. However, we do not know whether audiences will take to the app en masse. Currently, there is a very particular type of demographic who purchases via this method, and the extra steps involved with the app might not resonate with wider audiences.
For this reason, there will be a big disconnect in knowing whether to drive audiences to maximise revenue. LTK, Instagram, TikTok - not to mention dark horses such as Pinterest who also have significant shopping power. We might see creators decide to simplify the process and begin re-funnelling audiences back to their own websites via email capture in order to regain control whilst the affiliate and social giants battle it out ahead of the Christmas period.
What we see coming in 2022
Too many social updates will create an immediate sense of social media fatigue. There will be a big drive to email marketing once again to control the community narrative before Christmas.
A hard push to monetise on TikTok, Instagram and Pinterest through LTK, Amazon or Rakuten etc affiliate links will shift to in-app affiliate networks by the end of the year. Meaning that creators will have to decide which platforms to use. This will be supplemented first by boosted Creator fund payouts and bonus schemes to incentivise creators to show up and sell on social platforms before the Christmas period.
In-app editing tools for short-form video content will improve to entice users to create within the app and push for exclusive content that isn't repurposable to other platforms. This will cause a dilemma in content management. Those newer to video content will likely streamline their channels in panic, and those already capable of video editing will be able to ride the editing storm and capitalise on this with agility.
End-of-year campaigns will begin even earlier with even Christmas commercial campaigns operated by Creators themselves (e.g. 12 days of Christmas) happening in November rather than December. We'll see more old-school tactics used to capitalise on UGC being used to highlight exclusive communities, reached using more direct methods than public social channels.
